It is conventional wisdom and also our opinion that if the Democrats take the Congress in the 2018 elections, they will impeach President Trump in 2019. If that occurs, it is further our opinion that the Senate will not vote to convict Mr. Trump and remove him from office.
The wild card remains the Mueller investigation.
But what about the premise: that the Democrats will take the House?
We are not so sure.
First, Mr. Trump despite all that has happened continues to hold onto his base and his favorability ratings have polled upwards lately – though still decidedly underwater.
Second, whether or not it was good policy, we believe that the Republican tax cut will become increasingly popular among voters. If the economy does all right this year the GOP will claim a linkage between the economy and the tax cut bill while pointing out that no Democrat supported it.
Democrats will certainly try to link the sexual predators called out by the #metoo movement to the GOP and they might make some inroads.
As they do, however, the Democrats will continue to move away from Bill Clinton 71.
“Politico” Magazine reports:
“Democrats are looking to embrace the #MeToo moment and rally women to push back on President Donald Trump in the midterms—and they don’t want Bill Clinton anywhere near it.
“In a year when the party is deploying all their other big guns and trying to appeal to precisely the kind of voters Clinton has consistently won over, an array of Democrats told POLITICO they’re keeping him on the bench. They don’t want to be seen anywhere near a man with a history of harassment allegations, as guilty as their party loyalty to him makes them feel about it.”
“Politico” has also reported that Republicans have eliminated the Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot. Thirty-nine percent of registered voters say they would support the Republican candidate for Congress in their district, and 38 percent would support the Democratic candidate. Twenty-three percent, are undecided.
The elections are almost nine months off. A lot can and will happen.