President Trump has a lot on the line during these midterm elections. Regardless of recent success and a rise in popularity, the Democrats will almost certainly attempt to impeach him if they win back the house.
Will President Donald Trump be impeached?
The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.9 percent, the lowest since President Clinton was in office. Black unemployment is at a record low of 6.6 percent.
Mr. Trump’s poll numbers are up according to “Real Clear Politics” which puts his average job approval rating across several polls at 43.8 percent. At a similar time in his first term President Obama was at about the same, 42.4 percent.
The Rasmussen poll samples likely voters, not just registered ones, and puts Mr. Trump’s job approval ratings at 51 percent.
A Reuters weekly tracking poll showed support for Mr. Trump among black men jumping from 11 to 22 percent in April.
Mr. Trump’s poll numbers have risen since the first of the year, leading some GOP enthusiasts to hope that the Democrats drive to win the 2018 midterms has stalled.
We’ll see how that goes, but why is he polling better?
Who knows? But here are some possible reasons. Voters may like the way he has responded to China (trade war threats), NATO (demands that Europe pay its fair share), Syria (aerial bombing), ISIS (destruction), Russia (dead Russians in Syria) and, of course, North Korea where Trumpian bombast about “Rocket Boy” preceded healthy talks with the South.
Mr. Trump also may continue to have the economy on his side.
Also, there’s a segment of the population – and probably not just Trump loyalists – that feels sympathy for the President over the way it perceives the Obama Justice Department and the FBI treated his campaign and the post-election period.
What does Mr. Trump have to worry about? Lots.
In recent times, the president’s party has tended to do poorly in the first midterms – See 1986 (Ronald Reagan); 1994 (Bill Clinton); 2006 (George W. Bush); 2010 and 2014 (Barack Obama).
More specifically, Mr. Trump must worry about the Robert Mueller investigation, a downturn in the economy, people reacting to his odd statements (“Nobody knew health care could be so complicated”) and the usual things.
And Stormy Daniels.
Most people understand that about ten years ago, right after his wife gave birth, Mr. Trump had a sexual relationship with a porn star and then in the 2016 campaign approved the payment of hush money.
We have no idea if that is illegal or an in-kind campaign contribution but it seems likely that in 2019 a Congress with Nancy Pelosi as Speaker will impeach him for it and other matters.